This study assesses the impacts of the extreme climate events in a city economy. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with data calibrated at the city level and at a multi-week period, impacts of extreme climate events are estimated for the Valenzuela and Pasig in metropolitan Manila. Hazard data are exploited to construct simulation scenarios for the CGE model. First, the impact of flooding on the labor constraint faced by the different sectors is econometrically estimated. Second, the CGE model analyzes the impacts of the constraints in the utilization of factors over a one year period. Third, a resilience index is constructed analyzing the factors affecting the recovery period of the industries.

The results show that rainfall affects industries differentially and the most resilient sectors are those with the greatest value added. The implications on future modelling are discussed at the end of the report.

The Coastal Cities at Risk project aims to interrogate the complexity of risk posed by multiple hazards across sectors as well as spatial and time scales using a systems-dynamics lens. In this project proposed to the University Research Council, the aim is to build a database that relies more on local information that would help in analyzing the effects of disasters on economic activity and relationships that occur in the target project sites in the Cities of Naga and Iloilo. By conducting this study together with local academic institutions (Ateneo de Naga University and the University of the Philippines – Visayas) and the respective local government units, the component aims to get a wider set of information on the impacts of rapid onset climatic events that will allow it to build better counterfactuals and as a result, be able to also strengthen the analysis of the socio-economic impacts of these events and deepen the policy and program insights that can be drawn from such assessments. The construction of city-level social accounting matrices and the use of computable general equilibrium are also emphasized.