This study assesses the impacts of the extreme climate events in a city economy, specifically in Valenzuela and Pasig, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with data calibrated at the city level and at a multi-week period.

This study assesses the impacts of the extreme climate events in a city economy. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with data calibrated at the city level and at a multi-week period, impacts of extreme climate events are estimated for the Valenzuela and Pasig in metropolitan Manila. Hazard data are exploited to construct simulation scenarios for the CGE model. First, the impact of flooding on the labor constraint faced by the different sectors is econometrically estimated. Second, the CGE model analyzes the impacts of the constraints in the utilization of factors over a one year period Third, a resilience index is constructed analyzing the factors affecting the recovery period of the industries.

The results show that rainfall affects industries differentially and the most resilient sectors are those with the greatest value added. The implications on future modelling are discussed at the end of the report.

Technical Report

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Policy Implications on Business Continuity after Disasters

Policy Brief on Labor and Rainfall by Kevin Que

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